Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are crucial when developing national strategies to manage adverse effects from pesticide exposure to natural populations. Yet, estimating risk with surrogate species in controlled laboratory studies jeopardizes the ERA process because natural populations exhibit intraspecific variation within and across species. Here, we investigate the extent to which the ERA process underestimates the risk from pesticides on different species by conducting a meta‐analysis of all records in the ECOTOX Knowledgebase for honey bees and wild bees exposed to neonicotinoids. We found the knowledgebase is largely populated by acute lethality data on the Western honey bee and exhibits within and across species variation in LD50 up to 6 orders of magnitude from neonicotinoid exposure. We challenge the reliability of surrogate species as predictors when extrapolating pesticide toxicity data to wild pollinators and recommend solutions to address the (a)biotic interactions occurring in nature that make such extrapolations unreliable in the ERA process.