Article Dans Une Revue International Finance Année : 2025

Energy Real Options as a Predictor of War: 1920s – 2020s

Résumé

We propose to read wars in history as investment decisions, and develop two distinct forms of real option models in this context, one for preemption and one for reserve accumulation. We then apply these models to analyze the outbreak of wars empirically. Combining two historical datasets on wars and energy prices from 1925, we show that the inclusion of energy prices improves war forecasting. Further, considering real options on commodities helps explain both resource wars and the singularity of the petroleum order.

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Dates et versions

hal-05206216 , version 1 (11-08-2025)

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Laurent Gauthier, Julien Chevallier, Antoine Parent, Vincent Touzé. Energy Real Options as a Predictor of War: 1920s – 2020s. International Finance, 2025, 28 (3), pp.142-157. ⟨10.1111/infi.70003⟩. ⟨hal-05206216⟩
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