Market-Implied Losses and Non-Agency Subordinated MBS
Résumé
Market participants usually price new issue subordinated MBS in an ad hoc way that requires a lot of guessing and is subject to inconsistencies. An innovative method to value these securities uses market-implied loss distributions based on an analogy between derivatives products and non-agency subordinated bonds. Options are valued with implied volatilities, and subordinated MBS are valued with implied losses. This novel approach al-lows relative value analysis across the non-agency credit markets, and provides insight into some questions about the impact on fair value of subordination structural changes.