The Risk of War: An Analysis Combining Real Options and Games - Université Paris 8 Vincennes - Saint-Denis
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2024

The Risk of War: An Analysis Combining Real Options and Games

Résumé

Real options have been used to evaluate investment decisions with various structures, but have rarely been put into a game theoretical context. We examine the risk of war over a common resource, whose value is a geometric Brownian Motion, where one country may preemptively appropriate the resource, and the other wage war for it. We derive a closed form expression for the optimal mixed strategy that both countries should follow, and show that the resulting price level that triggers capturing the resource and subsequent war asymptotically follows a power law. The present value of the time until that trigger also decays slowly asymptotically. In consequence, in spite of both countries' propensity towards preemption, war may be indefinitely delayed.
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Dates et versions

hal-04388643 , version 1 (11-01-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04388643 , version 1

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Laurent Gauthier. The Risk of War: An Analysis Combining Real Options and Games. 2023. ⟨hal-04388643⟩
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